Table 1

Annual transition probabilities for the natural history model
Parameters
 Age
 Transition probability
 Time period
 References
Normal



Uninfected to Cervical HPV infection (HPV incidence)
 10–12
 0.0000
 12 months
 Calibrated from Canfell et al17

13
 0.0100
 12 months

14
 0.0300
 12 months

15
 0.0400
 12 months

16
 0.0460
 12 months

17
 0.0700
 12 months

18
 0.0700
 12 months

19
 0.1700
 12 months

20–21
 0.2000
 12 months

22
 0.1200
 12 months

23
 0.1100
 12 months

24–29
 0.0850
 12 months

30–33
 0.0320
 12 months

34–49
 0.0170
 12 months

50+
 0.0095
 12 months





HPV infected state



Progression from HPV infection to SIL – all risk HPV
0.0959
 12 months
 Canfell et al17
Percentage CIN 2 among SIL
0.1350
 12 months
 Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17
Regression of CIN 1 to normal from HPV infection
 12–24
 0.7000
 18 months
 Calibrated based on Myers et al12 and Canfell et al17

25–29
 0.5000
 18 months

30–39
 0.4000
 18 months

40–49
 0.2700
 18 months

50+
 0.1000
 18 months





CIN 1


Canfell et al17
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV
 16–34
 0.0297
 12 months

35+
 0.1485
 12 months
Progression from CIN 1 to CIN 3 – all risk HPV
0.0301
 12 months
Regression to HPV infected state – all risk HPV
 16–34
 0.2248
 12 months

35+
 0.1124
 12 months
Proportion regressing to normal
0.9000
 12 months





CIN 2


Canfell et al17
Progression from CIN 2 to CIN 3
 16–34
 0.0389
 12 months

35–44
 0.0797
 12 months

45+
 0.1062
 12 months
Regression from CIN 2 to CIN 1
0.2430
 12 months
Regression from CIN 2 to uninfected or HPV infections
0.1901
 12 months
Proportion regressing directly to normal
0.9000
 12 months





CIN 3


Canfell et al17
Regression CIN 3 to CIN 1 – all risk HPV
0.0000
 12 months
Regression from CIN 3 to CIN 2 – all risk HPV
0.0135
 12 months
CIN 3 to uninfected or HPV infection
 16–44
 0.0135
 12 months

45+
 0.0100
 12 months
Proportion CIN 3 regressing directly to uninfected
0.5000
 12 months
Proportion CIN 3 progressing to FIGO I cancer
0.0127
 12 months





Cervical cancer


Myers et al12
FIGO 1



Progression rates
0.9000
 48 months
Probability of symptoms
0.1850
 12 months
FIGO 2



Progression rates
0.9000
 36 months
Probability of symptoms
0.3000
 12 months
FIGO 3



Progression rates
0.9000
 15 months
Probability of symptoms
0.7500
 12 months
FIGO 4



Probability of symptoms
0.8000
 12 months





Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 1


Cancer Research UK 21
1 Year survival
0.977
 12 months
2 Year survival
0.978
 12 months
3 Year survival
0.963
 12 months
4 Year survival
0.988
 12 months
5 Year survival
0.988
 12 months





Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 2



1 Year survival
0.830
 12 months
2 Year survival
0.835
 12 months
3 Year survival
0.755
 12 months
4 Year survival
0.870
 12 months
5 Year survival
0.899
 12 months





Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 3



1 Year survival
0.590
 12 months
2 Year survival
0.693
 12 months
3 Year survival
0.778
 12 months
4 Year survival
0.928
 12 months
5 Year survival
0.963
 12 months





Annual probability of survival after diagnosis, FIGO 4



1 Year survival
0.523
 12 months
2 Year survival
0.782
 12 months
3 Year survival
0.721
 12 months
4 Year survival
0.925
 12 months
5 Year survival
0.956
 12 months

Kulasingam et al. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation 2008 6:4   doi:10.1186/1478-7547-6-4