Table 4

Sensitivity Analyses of the Lifetime* AMD-related^† Benefits of Quitting for 1,000 Randomly Selected Smokers^‡, and Cost-Effectiveness of a Tobacco Control Program.^§.

Model Variable

Lifetime AMD-related Benefits of Quitting

Cost per QALY gained (assuming a cost per quitter of $1,400)

QALYs gained

Costs (excluding caregivers) $

$

Slope parameter (τ), which is inversely proportional to the rate of decline in the risk of AMD after quitting relative to current-smokers

Upper 95% confidence Limit (slower decline)

1,600

-774,000

391

Lower 95% confidence Limit (faster decline)

1,623

-1,426,000

Dominant

Higher utilities for reduced visual acuity^¶

1,600

-1,082,000

199

Ranibizumab treatment of neovascular AMD^||

Base-case scenario, as in Table 3, but:

low ranibizumab cost

1611

-360,000

645

50% of neovascular patients treated

1613

-732,000

414

Sustained-effect scenario, low ranibizumab cost

1610

-282,000

694

Non-sustained effect scenario, high ranibizumab cost

1611

-929,000

292

* Censored at age 85 years

^† AMD: Age-related macular degeneration

^‡ From the U.S. population of smokers in 2004–2005[10]

^§Costs are in 2004 U.S. dollars and were rounded. Costs, blind-years and QALYs were discounted at 3% per annum

¶Source: Brown et al., estimated with standard gamble method.[25] For 30 letters read, for example, utility = 0.71, rather than 0.52 in the base case.

|| Base-case, Sustained-effect and Non-sustained effect scenarios as defined in previous paper.[7] Low ranibizumab cost = bevazicumab price ($50 per dose). High ranibizumab price = wholesale price ($1,950 per dose).

Hurley et al. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation 2008 6:18   doi:10.1186/1478-7547-6-18