Table 1 |
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Model parameters for 50–54 year olds for estimation of cases of disease, deaths, and life-years |
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| Parameter |
Males |
Females |
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| Definition |
Name |
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| DISEASE-SPECIFIC |
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| AMI |
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| Pr(AMI in next year for a smoker) |
pAMI |
0.0043 |
0.0012 |
| Pr(AMI in next year for a quitter)* |
pAMI |
0.0015 |
0.0004 |
| Pr(Die from an AMI before hospitalisation|have first AMI) |
pDA1_1 |
0.1943 |
0.1744 |
| Pr(Die in hospital from first AMI in first 28 days|have first AMI and hospitalised) |
pDA1_2 |
0.0347 |
0.0335 |
| Pr(Die from AMI in remainder of first year|discharged from hospital) |
pDA1_3 |
0.0235 |
0.0149 |
| Pr(Die from AMI in second year|survive first year) |
pDA2 |
0.0235 |
0.0149 |
| Stroke |
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| Pr(Stroke in next year for a smoker) |
pStroke |
0.0026 |
0.0016 |
| Pr(Stroke in next year for a quitter)* |
pStroke |
0.0014 |
0.0008 |
| Pr(Die from a stroke in first 30 days|have first stroke) |
pDS1_1 |
0.2250 |
0.2250 |
| Pr(Die from stroke in first year|survive first 30 days) |
pDS1_2 |
0.1818 |
0.1818 |
| Pr(Die from stroke in second year|survive first year)† |
pDS2 |
0.0833 |
0.0833 |
| Lung cancer |
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| Pr(Lung cancer in next year for a smoker) |
pLCa |
0.0016 |
0.0011 |
| Pr(Lung cancer in next year for a quitter) |
pLCa |
0.6998 |
0.0006 |
| Pr(Die from lung cancer in first year|have lung cancer |
pDL1 |
0.5930 |
0.5099 |
| Pr(Die from lung cancer in second year|survive first year)† |
pDL2 |
0.4069 |
0.3602 |
| COPD |
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| Pr(COPD in next year for a smoker) |
pCOPD |
0.0075 |
0.0062 |
| Pr(COPD in next year for a quitter) |
pCOPD |
0.0052 |
0.0035 |
| Pr(Die from COPD in year|have COPD) |
pDC |
0.0081 |
0.0060 |
| MORTALITY FROM OTHER CAUSES |
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| Pr(Die from other causes in next year for a smoker) |
pDie_other |
0.0040 |
0.0029 |
| Pr(Die from other causes in next year for a quitter) |
pDie_other |
0.0026 |
0.0024 |
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Note that Probabilities vary once smokers or quitters age into the next stratum Pr = probability | = conditional on * 5 years after quitting at age 45–49 years + Different probabilities for subsequent years |
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Hurley and Matthews Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation 2007 5:2 doi:10.1186/1478-7547-5-2 |
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